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3rd HyMeX workshop 1-4 June 2009 Heraklion (Gournes), Crete-Greece

Eastern Adriatic extreme precipitation and temperature conditions: changes in magnitude, frequencies and spells

Marjana Gajic-Capka (Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia); Ksenija Cindric, Ksenija Zaninovic

The research results from the Climate Research Department, dealing with the climate change detection and extreme value analysis, are aimed to contribute to the chapters WG2 - Hydrological Continental cycle – topic 2.4. Climatic and anthropogenetic change and to the chapter WG3 Heavy rainfall, flash-floods and floods – topic 3.2a Quantitative precipitation estimation.

Detection of ongoing climate trends and variability since the beginning of the 20th century will be performed for three stations: Crikvenica located in the Kvarner Bay characterised by the maritime climate of the northern Adriatic under the strong influence of the mountainous hinterland, Gospic on the Lika mountainous plateau in the hinterland of the Velebit Mountain (Dinaric Alps) and Hvar at the middle Adriatic island of Hvar. The same analysis will be extended to the denser meteorological network for the period starting at the middle of the 20th century. Emphasis is on the trends and variability in indices of precipitation and temperature extremes giving insight into their magnitude and frequency changes. The indices are calculated on the basis of daily measurements according to the WMO report on the activities of the working group on climate change detection.

Spatial characteristics of mean and maximum wet and dry spells along the eastern Adriatic coast, using daily rainfall data over a 40-year period (1960-2000), will be analysed. Dry (wet) spells are defined as sequences of consecutive days with precipitation less (above) different thresholds. Trends of mean and maximum spell length on seasonal and annual base will be estimated.

Estimation of short-term precipitation maxima for various integration time steps (10min, 20min, ..., 60min, 2h, 4h, 6h, 8h, 12h, 18h, 24h,...) for different return periods by means of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Series of recording raingauge measurements preferably during the last 60 years along the eastern Adriatic coast, on the islands and in the hinterland can be used. Their regime differs a lot according to the heavy rainfall climatology. Identification of magnitude, frequency and spatial characteristics can be used as the base for further investigations on the short-term rainfall physical processes and their impacts.